By Laura Roke, Commercial Director at Magnetic Group
The first half of 2025 brought both resilience and challenges to the global aviation industry. From airline performance to OEM backlogs, lessor activity, and MRO capacity constraints, the sector continues to adapt to shifting demand, supply chain pressures, and evolving passenger expectations.
Operators:
- Lufthansa Group- remained one of Europe’s strongest networks, balancing capacity growth with profitability.
- Low-cost carriers – Ryanair, Wizz Air, easyJet – reported strong load factors, benefiting from resilient leisure demand across Europe.
- Air France-KLM and IAG strengthened transatlantic capacity while managing operational costs.
- Turkish Airlines stood out for its overall quality offering, while Qatar Airways received recognition for its best-in-class economy product.
OEMs:
- Airbus delivered ~300 aircraft by June, with 63 in June alone, slightly outpacing Boeing’s 60.
- Boeing delivered ~278 aircraft in H1 2025.
Backlog & Production Outlook:
- Airbus: 8,742 jets (excl. A320ceo & A330-200) → 7,660 (88%) narrowbodies → ~10.7 years backlog.
- Boeing: 6,581 jets (excl. 737-700, 737-800 & 777-300ER) → 4,869 (74%) 737 MAX → ~11.6 years backlog.
Lessors:
- Narrowbody lease extensions showing strong demand of the assets.
- Fresh equity: $4.7 billion raised into aviation funds – a notable improvement compare with last period.
- Most lessors expect the bulk of lease returns in 2027, barring extraordinary disruptions in operations.
- Exploration of part-outs, including even younger A320neos, reflects shifting asset strategies.
MRO's:
- Base maintenance slot shortage and manpower challenges remain critical – unchanged from 2024.
- USM & engine parts scarcity continues to drive TAT volatility and cost escalation.
- Component repair shops still facing long delays.
- Engine shops: high demand for light repairs & module swaps; persistent slot shortages for CFM56 full performance restoration.
- Early signs of improvement for LEAP & GTF turnaround times, but full normalization could take years.
What's next?
The aviation industry enters H2 2025 with strong passenger demand and resilient lessor activity. However, OEM backlogs, supply chain challenges, tariffs (?!), unstable geopolitical situation, sanctions and MRO capacity constraints will define the pace of recovery and growth.
Strategically, airlines, lessors, and MROs must continue to:
- Diversify fleets & financing sources and find creative solutions;
- Adapt asset strategies (extensions, part-outs, acquisitions)
- Invest in workforce, attract new people and focus on trainings - to bridge manpower gaps;
- Focus on cross-business synergies to mitigate risks.
The first half of 2025 demonstrated aviation’s resilience, but also its structural fragility. Collaboration across airlines, lessors, OEMs, and MROs will be crucial in turning today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities.
Originally published: Magnetic Group Linkedin
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